Measuring Exponential Trends Rising (in AI) — Joel Becker, METR
Feb 27, 2026 · 1:05:12
Joel Becker of METR explains the organization's model evaluation and threat research to assess whether AI could pose catastrophic risks, detailing their time horizon chart measuring task difficulty in human time at 50% reliability. He describes how tasks are selected for economic relevance and auto-gradability, and why time horizon is often misinterpreted as agent runtime. The episode covers Opus 4.5's surprising jump, challenges redoing developer productivity RCTs as workflows change, and why current models aren't yet catastrophically dangerous. Becker discusses potential capability explosions if R&D loops fully automate, links between compute growth slowdowns and slower capability progress, and his Manifold trading story driven by a charity market he could influence. He previews METR's 2026 plans for monitoring and risk assessment, and their hiring.
