METR

Measuring Exponential Trends Rising (in AI) — Joel Becker, METR

Feb 27, 2026 · 1:05:12

Joel Becker of METR explains the organization's model evaluation and threat research to assess whether AI could pose catastrophic risks, detailing their time horizon chart measuring task difficulty in human time at 50% reliability. He describes how tasks are selected for economic relevance and auto-gradability, and why time horizon is often misinterpreted as agent runtime. The episode covers Opus 4.5's surprising jump, challenges redoing developer productivity RCTs as workflows change, and why current models aren't yet catastrophically dangerous. Becker discusses potential capability explosions if R&D loops fully automate, links between compute growth slowdowns and slower capability progress, and his Manifold trading story driven by a charity market he could influence. He previews METR's 2026 plans for monitoring and risk assessment, and their hiring.

How Zyphra went all-in on AMD + Why Devs feel faster with AI but are slower — with Quentin Anthony

Nov 3, 2025 · 1:00:02

Quentin Anthony, head of model training at Zyphra and advisor at EleutherAI, explains why his company moved all training to AMD MI300X GPUs, outperforming Nvidia H100s on certain workloads thanks to 192GB VRAM and higher memory bandwidth, and describes his kernel development approach of writing directly in ROCm or GPU assembly rather than using Triton. He also shares his experience in the METR study on AI coding productivity, where he was one of the few developers with measurable speedup, and offers tips: timebox AI use, avoid the slot machine effect, maintain context hygiene, and use direct API over tools like Cursor. Additionally, he argues that open source AI research benefits from siloed focused teams with guaranteed funding over grand collaborations, and notes that kernel datasets alone won't solve GPU programming due to evaluation challenges.