The State of Silicon and the GPU Poors - with Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis
Dec 5, 2023 · 1:07:55
Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis argues the 'GPU poor vs GPU rich' divide defines AI, with Google's TPU ramp (millions of units) dwarfing others and Nvidia selling over a million H100s this year. He explains that training costs are irrelevant compared to inference costs, and that memory bandwidth is the key bottleneck for LLM inference (e.g., Llama 70B needs ~2.1 TB/s for human reading speed). Patel advises GPU-poor players to focus on on-device innovations like speculative decoding (Medusa), asynchronous training, or fine-tuning for edge use—not on gaming benchmarks or fine-tuning small models. He details why AI hardware startups (Cerebras, Graphcore) bet wrong on on-chip SRAM, while Google’s TPU/Broadcom partnership and Nvidia’s yearly cadence make alternatives tough. He also warns that rebuilding the semiconductor supply chain in the US is unfeasible due to its fragmentation, and that safety through obscurity doesn't work—open innovation is better.
